Following an unprecedented year of climate-related records being broken for the wrong reasons, UN Chief António Guterres has declared that “the era of global warming has ended, the era of global boiling has arrived.” This week, the climate action conversation comes to a crescendo as the world turns its attention to the United Arab Emirates and COP28. Around 167 world leaders, including the Pope and King Charles III, will travel to Dubai with a shared mission; to address and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Whilst some question the summit’s credibility, many see COP28 as a beacon of hope for addressing climate change and fostering collective investments in a sustainable future.
So, what can we expect from this year’s summit? Will the Conference of Parties 2023 prove to be the most impactful to date, or will questions around leadership integrity make headlines instead?
Predictions
During COP21, a global consensus was reached to restrict global warming to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, by 2050. Results of the first global stocktake were published in October 2023 and found that the world is not on track to achieve its targets set out in The Paris Agreement in 2015. During COP28, UN member states will negotiate their response to the stocktake’s findings. These conversations will undoubtedly take centre stage as the report emphasises a need for urgent action.
McKinsey reports that an estimated $5.9 trillion in climate financing is required by 2050 for developing countries to achieve their climate goals. The Standing Committee on Finance is preparing a report on the developed countries’ pledge to double adaptation finance by 2025. As a result, conversations are predicted to focus on how differing global economies and political landscapes can align with the Paris Agreement, and what can be done to meet this financial shortfall.
In addition, Forbes has revealed that in 2022, global investment in energy transition technologies, including renewables, reached a record high of USD 1.3 trillion. The International Energy Agency estimates that around USD 2.8 trillion will be invested in energy in 2023, with over USD 1.7 trillion directed towards clean energy. This substantial increase signals a decisive shift in investment priorities, aligning with COP28’s goal to make climate finance more accessible. Conversations between governments and businesses are predicted to shift to re-evaluate investment strategies, particularly in developing countries.
Concerns
While discussions on the global stocktake and funding will rightfully take the spotlight at COP28, there is a parallel discourse questioning the summit’s credibility, authenticity, and overall impact. The President-Designate for COP28 UAE, H.E. Dr. Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, is also the CEO of a state-owned oil company, raising suspicions about the UAE’s intentions to leverage climate talks for oil deals. The absence of key leaders, such as US President Joe Biden, adds to concerns, as does the irony of 75,000 people travelling to Dubai for a sustainability conference.
Whether critic or supporter, COP28 is poised to shape regulatory frameworks, policy commitments, and investor expectations. Personally, we hope positive action is taken and those making a change for the better, are given support to do so.
Your next read | See our mid-summit take in our COP28 pulse check.
Photo by Greg Rakozy on Unsplash